On another topic: Unemployment

Cesar Conda, Republican strategist, former Romney and Cheney advisor:

Another topic: Unemployment

Today, the Labor Department reported that the nation’s unemployment rate increased to 9.4 percent in May from 8.9 percent in April, which is the highest rate in 26 years. Although the pace of job loss has slowed, the economy has now lost 2.2 million jobs since the beginning of Janaury. 

Last week, President Obama claimed that 150,000 jobs had been “created” or “saved” by the stimulus package. It’s yet another case of the President’s use of fuzzy math which miraculously turns a 2.2 milion job loss into a 150,000 job gain. Reduce…

And just a few minutes ago on CNBC, Arena Contributor and White House economic advisor Jared Bernstein said that the Administration predicts another 600,000 jobs would be “created” or “saved” in the next hundred days. According to the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office, unemployment will continue to rise and peak above 10 percent in the second half of next year. 

How does this Administration continue to get away with producing these kinds of job creation estimates in the face of hard evidence from its own Department of Labor showing job losses, and economic forecasts from the CBO and other private sector sources predicting unemployment rising to 10 percent next year?

 

Rick Beyer, Documentary filmmaker, author, history guy:

The job loss for May was dramatically less than expected, and is widely viewed as good news. If you pass a big stimulus bill and the loss of jobs is suddenly much less than expected, it seems perfectly logical to me to conclude you’ve created jobs. It’s only fuzzy math when viewed through the distorted GOP prism that colors everything Obama does (even going out to dinner with his wife) as evil, deceptive, or un-American.

 

David Biespiel, Poet and writer, Attic Writers Workshop:

Rick, I’ve been involved in more left/right debates with Cesar than just about anyone on the Arena. I can assure you that Cesar Conda is anything but a distorter. He’s always informed, detailed, insightful, and yes, certainly partisan, but cogently and rationally so. I’m sure he’s pro-dinner-with-your-wife, too. His sweetly tweaking the Obama Administration today about the unemployment numbers is also mathematically accurate. Jobs have been lost and jobs have been gained. 

But, Cesar, you know that the Obama Administration didn’t invent selective use of numbers as a method of self-congratulation. For instance, President Obama’s job approval hovers around 60 % (according to RCP), but you never hear the administration also say that the president’s job performance is disapproved by 40%. And you never will.

According to Recovery.org, as of May 22nd, only $36 billion of the $787 billion stimulus package had been spent. It is highly unlikely that $36 billion in increased government spending or tax relief could impact the $13 trillion U.S. economy enough to “suddenly” reduce job losses in one month. Yes, the lower-than-expected 345,000 job loss in May is good news. But the President’s stimulus package had little, if anything, to do with this improvement, and there is absolutely no evidence showing that it created 150,000 new jobs. 

 

Cesar Conda, Republican strategist, former Romney and Cheney advisor:

The economy is more likely being “stimulated” by a breathtaking increase in the money supply by the Federal Reserve, and $12 trillion in federal loan guarantees over the past 6 months, which unfortunately will cause significantly higher inflation and interest rates in the near future. The President’s stimulus package and budget plan — which produces annual deficits averaging $600 billion and doubles the national debt — will make matters worse and cause interest rates to surge even further.

 

David Biespiel, Poet and writer, Attic Writers Workshop:

Cesar’s point about claiming job gains when it’s actually estimates of job gains is a valid one. Had the president simply said, “We began by passing a Recovery Act that has already saved or created over an estimated 150,000 jobs,” he’d have avoided this tiny dust up. At the same time, chastising the Obama Administration for using prediction economics as factual analysis followed by one’s own prediction about the future of interest rates and inflation isn’t convincing either. Since the Fed cut interest rates practically into the negatives, the percentages were destined to go up no matter what happened.